Thursday, January 04, 2007

Surprise! Traffic Getting Worse.

I think a good way to kick off the resumption of posting here would be to bring attention to the annual WSDOT Congestion Report. Here's a three-word summary that is sure to shock you: traffic got worse. Now enjoy some quotes from the press release:

To nearly no one’s surprise, the annual WSDOT congestion report released this week shows traffic congestion in the Puget Sound region is worse than it was two years ago.

The report tracks several measures of delay and congestion on major commuting routes. On 34 of the 35 commute routes analyzed, travel times increased at peak periods, speeds slowed, peaks lengthened, and the reliability of travel times worsened. All those factors resulted in reduced productivity of the freeway system, which means the system is less successful in meeting the need of people and freight to move around the region at the peak use hours.

“Several factors are playing a part in the build-up of congestion,” said state Transportation Secretary Doug MacDonald. “In the period from 2003 to 2005, the Central Puget Sound region added over 40,000 new jobs and over 70,000 new people. Growth is placing ever greater demands on the system.”

According to the state’s Chief Traffic Engineer Ted Trepanier, WSDOT’s efforts to operate the transportation system more efficiently are helping, but not by enough to offset the continuing pressures of more people and more trips on the freeways.
What troubles me more than traffic getting worse is that there does not appear to be any realistic plan to prevent it from continuing to get worse in the future. Puget Sound population is expected to continue to increase at a good rate, and yet there are virtually zero plans to increase road capacity in any serious way.

Instead it seems that all of the transportation schemes center around rail or "mass transit" systems that under even the most optimistic estimates will carry only a tiny percentage of the commuting public. How bad will traffic have to get before they actually decide to do something that will actually address the problem, instead of merely further utopian visions of an unattainable future?
As traffic jams affect more areas of the freeway system for longer periods of time, the importance of good driving becomes increasingly larger.

“On crowded freeways, bad driving practices cause traffic flow breakdowns and even result in accidents that can put traffic in gridlock for hours,” said Trepanier. “Fighting traffic congestion requires strong operational programs, delivery of new projects to build capacity and every-day attention by motorists to their own safe driving habits.”
Speaking of good driving, I believe that the biggest improvements in transportation will come not from mass transit or building roads, but from smarter, smaller cars. I think that within 50 years, we'll have fully automated cars drive themselves from point to point, communicating with each other in a wireless peer-to-peer network to automatically regulate congestion and avoid collisions. We're already well along the path, with incremental steps like adaptive cruise control and self-parking cars. If every car on the road was operating in sync with each other, freeway capacity would probably quadruple, since the need to maintain a "safe following distance" would be eliminated.

Anyway, now I've gone and put myself into fantasy Utopia dream mode. Even if self-driving cars are on the horizon, there's still a major traffic problem today that needs real solutions. I wonder when the policy-makers will wake up to that fact.

(Press Release, WSDOT, 11.15.2006)
(WSDOT Congestion Report, WSDOT, 11.22.2006)

3 comments:

j said...

Welcome back. Buses seem to be bursting with riders so people are turning to alternatives but, wow, the carpool lanes are empty. Too many solo drivers.

Chris said...

The carpool lanes are empty? What roads do you drive?

Smarter, smaller cars are a good solution. I also could stand to see some better road design and traffic management. A recent Seattle Times column noted that when the bus tunnels closed downtown, a large number of small tweaks (e.g. disallowing left turns at certain intersections, reducing on street parking, rethinking the traffic light timing) meant the addition of hundreds of buses had no impact on overall congestion. His point had to do with whether replacing the Alaskan Way Viaduct is really necessary. My thought was: how many more "tweaks" can be made to increase capacity. Things like placing the highway entrance ramp moderating lights a little farther back, so that the speed up lane is really long enough. Or closing some of the entrances and exits to all but emergency vehicles and buses.

Anonymous said...

We are not left with many options I agree. I really wish we had light rail running in circles around lake Washington (I-5 to I-90 to 405 to 520). That and spokes to Everett, Renton, Issaquah, airport, etc. That would solve all the problems. But there isn't a chance in @#@@ of that happening. Let's be real, American's are pretty dumb. So we will continue to just use road building as the only solution. So we can wait and wait and wait for the federal government (aka the American People) to give us the federal funds required for such massive infrustructure which is the only way we could afford it but that will never happen because most American's are rather stupid. Sorry its just a fact. Or we can get money for building more roads. That probably the only solution that can actually get funded in this country. So let's do it! Build more bridges across Lake Washington too, around Kenmore. And a 605 to parallel 405 through Issaquah. And while we are at it more lanes in I-5 through Seattle.